Friday, August 30, 2013

Here's how you should plan your retirement

Below is the verbatim transcript of Nath's interview with CNBC-TV18.

Caller Q: I am about to retire in a short period of time, maybe two-three years, so I was thinking of investing about Rs 8,000 a month. I am not looking for any risky investments?

A: People, who are about to retire, one of the challenges they always face is how not to outlive their wealth.

As you said you have only two-three years for retirement and you want to save around Rs 8,000 and you also said that you do not mind putting that for seven-eight years probably you can take a bit of exposure to equities. However, more importantly, I would ask you to look at your total savings that you have and then accordingly you may look at allocating 15-20 percent of those savings towards equity and balance should be put into fixed deposit. For the simple reason that that 20 percent into equity will give you a little higher return than what a normal fixed income investment will provide.

Second thing is that, you may live for another 20-30 years, god willing and if you have an expense of Rs 10,000 then probably you need to have Rs 20-25 lakh of wealth with you. If you have less than that then probably you need to cut down some of your expenses and you may need to work for a little more.

In short, of this Rs 8,000 per month that you want to invest, a little bit of money can go into equity, more importantly the total wealth that you have, you should look at investing 15-20 percent into equities and the balance into fixed income.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Ask The Expert: Does Contrarian Investing Really Work?

If you'd like us to answer one of your investing questions in our weekly Ask The Expert Q&A column, email us at editors@investinganswers.com. (Note: We will not respond to requests for stock picks.)

Question: Does being an investing contrarian actually work? Will I make money going against the market?

-- Jim S., Chicago, IL

Contrarian investing carries a special attraction for many investors. Not only does being a contrarian frequently present an opportunity to produce outsize gains, it can also be a thrill and big boost to the ego to bet against the masses and go against the grain.

Adding greater allure to the attraction of being a contrarian are the escapades of legendary hedge-fund billionaires scoring huge gains executing contrarian strategies. That includes John Paulson's $12 billion profit in 2007 after bucking popular opinion and making huge bets against housing. Fellow hedge-fund billionaire David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital Management also dazzled Wall Street in 2011 after shorting Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR) before the stock's epic implosion, netting Einhorn and his firm hundreds of millions in profits.

But the reality behind these glamorous headlines is that being a contrarian is extremely risky and carries a low probability of success. And there are a few very good reasons for that.

One of the most popular contrarian strategies is shorting a stock or entire industry with a high price-to-earnings ratio. But the problem with shorting stocks is that the stock market spends a lot more time going up than going down. Since 1950, the S&P 500 is up an eye-popping 9,458%.

That rising equity tide tends to lift all stocks, making it difficult to profit on a short even with an industry laggard or struggling company. Take a look at the huge gains the S&P 500 has produced in the last 63 years.

The second challenge of being a contrarian is timing the market. A successful contrarian investment requires perfectly timing a ! turn in sentiment, but even the most successful investors in the industry acknowledge that market timing is the toughest game in town.

That played out with the United States Natural Gas ETF (NYSE: UNG) in the past five years. With the natural gas market crashing from its record high in the summer of 2008, many contrarian investors were quick to buy on the big drop anticipating a reversal. But four years later, prices are still deeply depressed, equating to huge losses for any contrarian investors calling a bottom in the last few years.

Remember, even if the logic behind a contrarian investment is rock solid, that doesn't mean it will be profitable, thus the saying: "The market can stay irrational longer than most investors can stay solvent." Take a look below at the huge decline in natural gas that wreaked havoc on contrarian investors looking to go against the grain in the last few years.

The third reason being an effective contrarian is so challenging is a matter of time, expertise and resources. It's important to understand that effective contrarian investing requires identifying an opportunity that the rest of the market is completely missing. And between the largest institutional players on the Street -- including banks and hedge funds -- there are tens of thousands of forensic financial analysts and high-frequency computer models pouring over every single piece of market data in the world.

If this group of highly trained professionals with the best resources and incentives is missing a big contrarian opportunity, it is highly unlikely that a one-person operation with limited experience and resources is going to beat the Street and capitalize on a short-term anomaly.

Generally speaking, the best strategy for most investors is to work with an adviser and keep it relatively simple. Investors don't need to score 1,000% gains to be extremely profitable and successful in the market. Great investing is built upon patience and discipline.

Action to Take --> Co! ntrarian ! investing sounds glamorous, but the reality is that going against the grain is extremely risky and carries a low probability of success. Most investors should focus on keeping it simple, with the core of their portfolios invested in low-cost index funds. That will keep your portfolio in tune with the market's bullish trend while limiting fees and expenses to a minimum.

This article was originally published at InvestingAnswers.com
Ask the Expert: Does Contrarian Investing Really Work?

Monday, August 26, 2013

Will Siemens See Higher Prices?

Stock Market

With shares of Siemens (NYSE:SI) trading around $104, is SI an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our Cheat Sheet investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Siemens is an integrated technology company with activities in the fields of industry, energy and healthcare. Siemens operates in six segments: industry, energy, healthcare, equity investments, Siemens IT solutions and services, and Siemens financial services. The company has equity investments in telecommunications infrastructure and household appliance companies, as well as in a company that provides open communications, network, and security solutions. Recently, Nokia (NYSE:NOK) has announced it will acquire the remaining stake it doesn't already own in the Nokia Siemens Network. Nokia is buying Siemens's 50 percent of the network for a lower-than-expected 1.7 billion euros. Both stocks seem to be taking the news positively.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed

Siemens stock has not made much progress in the past several years. The stock is now in a consolidation range that extends to the beginning of the year. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages: 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow). As seen in the daily price chart below (source: Thinkorswim), Siemens is trading slightly below its key averages, which signals neutral to bearish price action in the near term.

SI

Taking a look at the implied volatility and implied volatility skew levels of Siemens options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Siemens Options

20.68%

33%

30%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Flat

Average

August Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers, and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates, and the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Siemens’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and year-over-year revenue growth figures for Siemens look like and, more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

11.36%

-7.03%

-0.79%

54.97%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-10.15%

3.83%

2.24%

-5.11%

Earnings Reaction

0.44%

-1.08%

1.35%

-0.62%

Siemens has seen mixed earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been on the fence about Siemens’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Siemens’s stock done relative to its peers – ABB (NYSE:ABB), General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE), Royal Phillips (NYSE:PHG) — and sector?

Siemens

ABB

General Electric

Royal Phillips

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-4.91%

5.39%

12.48%

4.45%

4.47%

Siemens has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Siemens provides technology products and services in a wide range of industries worldwide. A recent sell of the remaining investment in the Nokia Siemens Network is scheduled and it seems as if the markets are content with this move. The stock has struggled in recent years, and it is part of a value range extending to the beginning of the year. In the past four quarters, investors in the company have been on the fence as earnings and revenue figures have been mixed. Relative to its peers and sector, Siemens has been a poor year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Siemens does in coming quarters.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Weekly COMEX Gold Update: Despite The Rise In Gold Price Inventories Continue To Decline

In the previous week's report we continued to see registered COMEX gold inventories drop, but we did start to see a rise in eligible gold inventories held at the COMEX. This week's COMEX data shows that this turnaround has been reversed as more gold was withdrawn from the COMEX as both registered and eligible inventories decline.

This is something that should be very relevant to investors who own physical gold and the gold ETFs (GLD, PHYS, and CEF) because any abnormal inventory declines may signify extraordinary events behind the scenes that would ultimately affect the gold price.


(Click to enlarge)

Source: http://www.sharelynx.com

As you can see on the chart above, both registered and eligible gold stocks have been declining significantly since the beginning of 2013, though they seem to have begun to stabilize. We will take a closer look at these numbers but let us first explain the COMEX a little more for investors who are unfamiliar with it.

This Week's Changes: Both Registered and Eligible Gold Decline Modestly

Let us now take a deeper look at the gold draw-downs being seen in the COMEX warehouses.


(Click to enlarge)

As investors can see in the table above, we have been seeing consistent declines in gold inventories since December. The previous week's increase in total COMEX gold stocks was more than offset by last week's decrease in COMEX gold stocks - both registered and eligible gold declined modestly.

Now, let us take a look at registered gold stocks.


(Click to enlarge)

Registered gold continued to! decline last week as it has for the past eight months - though the decline slowed from the previous week's large 117,000 ounce drop. But we did drop for the first time ever below 800,000 ounces of registered gold.

As we have mentioned before, we do not know why gold is leaving the COMEX - but we do know it is still leaving in ever increasing quantities. The steep and sustained nature of this decline suggests that it is not a haphazard event - multiple players are withdrawing their gold in large amounts and there must be a significant reason why they are doing it.

What does this Mean for Gold Investors

As everyone in the gold sector knows, last week was a terrific week for the gold bulls as the gold (and silver) price rose significantly even as the financial markets declined. It will be very interesting to see what will happen with COMEX inventories if the gold price continues to rise - will gold come back to the COMEX? Or has the gold that has left COMEX left for good?

This question is more than just a curiosity because one thing we tend to see is as the gold price rises, COMEX open interest tends to rise too - after all investors love trading assets that are moving. If the gold has left COMEX for good, then as this open interest rises there will be much less gold backing each existing contract. As we have discussed previously, the current backing of registered gold to existing contracts is at an all-time high at over 50 ounces of contract gold represented by only 1 ounce of registered gold. If we do not see registered gold rise with COMEX open interest there may be some very serious issues and the scenario would be ripe for players to take advantage of some very naive shorts.

Either way we believe that despite the gold rise, the COMEX inventory situation is still very bullish for investors in physical gold and the gold ETFs (GLD, CEF, and PHYS). They may also consider buying gold-focused miners such as Randgold (GOLD), Goldcorp (GG), and Barrick Gold (ABX).

It! will be ! very interesting to watch what happens with COMEX inventories if the gold price continues to rise to higher levels - will they be replenished? Or are we going to see gold continue to drop - in which case we really may have a run on the COMEX. Investors should stay tuned.

Source: Weekly COMEX Gold Update: Despite The Rise In Gold Price Inventories Continue To Decline

Disclosure: I am long SGOL, GG, GOLD, SIVR. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Saturday, August 24, 2013

More Regulation, More Problems for Global Corporate Finance Leaders

Nearly half of financial services executives who responded to a global survey expressed concern about their national economies, but 70% said they were confident in their country’s economic growth prospects.

Robert Half Financial Services surveyed 1,100 finance directors, chief financial officers and chief operations officers in Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Singapore, the U.K. and the U.S., and interviewed senior industry executives for its report, “Navigating Change in an Evolving Regulatory Landscape.”

Although 80% of respondents said they were confident about their firm’s growth potential, many still had concerns when they looked within their firms:

—41% of executives were most worried about business costs, 37% about profitability and 23% about increasing regulatory issues
—88% of respondents said managing regulatory change had proved challenging
—66% foresaw a continuation of heavier workloads due to regulatory changes, and 35% anticipated spending related to financial regulations to keep rising
—33% said they were working with interim or project professionals to address compliance demands, and 23% planned to add full-time staff
—89% of executives said they had faced challenges in hiring employees with requisite skills, and 83% were worried about their ability to keep top performers on board
—68% of respondents said integrated governance, risk and compliance programs had been effective for their businesses.

“Executives must balance compliance demands in equal measure with profitability goals,” Neil Owen, Robert Half’s global practice director, said in a statement.

“The firms best positioned to succeed are those that are staffed with financial professionals who take a proactive stance to managing regulatory compliance and develop long-term strategies that address shifting business priorities.”

---

Check out Brokers Willing to Pay Up for Fiduciary Standard: SIFMA

Friday, August 23, 2013

Why Horizontal Drilling Is Such a Game-Changer for America

anImage

Photo credit: Flickr/nestorgalina

"America has a long history of achieving the impossible. We defeated the British. We landed on the moon. We invented the Internet. And now we can add horizontal drilling to the list of American innovations that have changed the world forever."
-- Howard Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR  )

That quote comes from Hamm's Energy Independence Day letter, which appeared in Forbes last month. What's most interesting about the letter, which also noted that the U.S. is likely to overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2017, is that Hamm isn't crediting hydraulic fracturing for the current American energy renaissance:

Some may say this new abundance in oil and gas is due to hydraulic fracturing. However, fracking technology has been consistently in use for more than 60 years. What is new is horizontal drilling.

He points out that in 2000, there were fewer than 50 horizontal drilling rigs in the U.S.m but today there are more than 1,200, which is why we've gone from talking about peak oil to now pondering American energy independence within a decade.

Clearly, horizontal drilling wouldn't be viable without being combined with hydraulic fracturing. However, when done in combination, the results are absolutely game-changing. Consider the following quotes from Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD  ) CEO Scott Sheffield on the company's most recent quarterly conference call. In talking about a recent horizontally drilled well in the Permian Basin, he said: "What's interesting, in six months, it's reached 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent." What's truly mind-blowing is what he said next: "Our typical vertical well takes 30 to 35 years to produce a 140,000 on a vertical well. So we did that in six months." By simply shifting from a vertical well to one drilled horizontally, the company was able to pull forward three decades of oil and gas production.

The other thing to keep in mind here is that the company isn't just pulling production forward, but it's accessing oil and gas that would never have been recoverable before. That's because companies are able to significantly improve what are called estimated ultimate recoveries, or EURs. In fact, production is so good at its recent wells that the company, which had estimated it would ultimately be able to recover about 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent from its wells, is now, based on what it's seeing, estimating that it could pull out more than a million barrels in some cases from its wells.

In one final example the company gave on its conference call, it noted that in 10 months one of its Jo Mill wells produced an average of about 50,000 to 60,000 barrels already. That's truly staggering when considering that it was thought that a traditional vertical well in the Jo Mill would produce only 20,000 barrels in 40 years. It's pretty clear: Horizontal drilling changed everything.

Further, while horizontal drilling is revitalizing legacy oil and gas basins such as the Permian where Pioneer is using it, it's also putting new emerging basins such as the Bakken and Eagle Ford on the map. In fact, without horizontal drilling, the Bakken would not be economic to produce. However, with oil over $100 per barrel, a producer like Continental can earn a rate of return in excess of 60% even after spending more than $8 million to drill each well. Meanwhile, thanks to horizontal drilling, EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG  ) is one company enjoying rates of returns north of 100% in the Eagle Ford. In fact, EOG credits horizontal drilling with its holding some of the best horizontal oil assets in North America, which have delivered an average of 40% production growth each year this decade.

For far too long, hydraulic fracturing has been the focus of America's oil and gas boom. It's time to give some credit where credit is due, and it's pretty clear: Horizontal drilling is what's leading America's energy revolution.

Despite the production gains from horizontal drilling, the days of $100 oil are far from gone. That's why investors need to be positioned to profit from $100 oil, which would appear to be here to stay. To help investors get rich off rising oil prices, our top analysts prepared a free report that reveals three stocks that are bound to soar as oil prices climb higher. To discover the identities of these stocks instantly, access your free report by clicking here now.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Risk types, iron stomach test & the investing rule: Part I

Top 5 Blue Chip Companies To Own In Right Now

Considering the post 2008 market scenario, if there�s one thing almost every investor knows, it�s that there�s no such thing as a free lunch. If you want gains from the markets, you�re going to have to stomach volatility � and looking at the way things have been going since 2008, this is ongoing volatility.

But, in the wild ride we�ve all been on in the past 3 years, there have been some fantastic opportunities to grow your wealth. And people who have conditioned themselves to stay strong (read: unemotional) in their investing habits, have made a lot of money, despite the risks. This is the kind of investing behavior that will help you achieve your life goals through both equity and debt investments.

Today, with interest rates at their peak, debt i.e. fixed income investments are also a great place to be investing, depending on your goal time horizon and risk appetite. With equity markets experiencing volatility, valuations can be attractive too. Hence both equity and debt are strong potential investment avenues currently. With both asset classes available for sound investment, its best to educate yourself about the risks and rewards before you go ahead and invest. 

To start with, let�s go over the basics and see what the different types of risks are. Then we�ll talk a little bit about the risk-reward trade-off, and summarize with the one investing rule that will never fail to help you make money and achieve your goals.

So, what are the different types of investment risk?

The 2 broad types of risk are systematic and unsystematic. 

Systematic risk is risk within the entire system. This is the kind of risk that applies to an entire market, or market segment. All investments are affected by this risk, for example risk of a government collapse, risk of war or inflation, or risk such as that of the 2008 credit crisis. It is virtually impossible to protect your portfolio against this risk. It cannot be completely diversified away. It is also known as un-diversifiable risk or market risk.

Unsystematic risk is also known as residual risk, specific risk or diversifiable risk. It is unique to a company or a particular industry. For example strikes, lawsuits and such events that are specific to a company, and can to an extent be diversified away by other investments in your portfolio are unsystematic risk.

Within these two types, there are certain specific types of risk, which every investor must know.

1. Credit Risk (also known as Default Risk)

Credit risk is just the risk that the person you have given credit to, i.e. the company or individual, will be unable to pay you interest, or pay back your principal, on its debt obligations.

If you are investing in Infrastructure Bonds or Company Fixed Deposits right now, you should be aware of the credit / default risk involved.

Government bonds have the lowest credit risk (but it is not zero � think of Portugal, Ireland or Spain right now), while low rated corporate deposits (junk bonds) have high credit risk. Before investing in a bond or a corporate deposit, be sure to check how highly it is rated by a well known rating agency such as CRISIL, ICRA or CARE.

Remember, even a bank FD has some credit risk, as only a maximum of Rs. 1 lakh is guaranteed by the Government.

2. Country Risk

When a country cannot keep to its debt obligations and it defaults, all of its stocks, mutual funds, bonds and other financial investment instruments are affected, as are the countries it has financial relations with. If a country has a severe fiscal deficit, it is considered more likely to be risky than a country with a low fiscal deficit, ceteris paribus.

Emerging economies are considered to be more risky than developed nations.

3. Political Risk

This is also higher in emerging economies. It is the risk that a country�s government will suddenly change its policies. For example, today with the continuing raging debate on FDI in retail, India�s policies will not be looking very attractive to foreign investors, and stock prices are negatively affected.

3. Reinvestment Risk

This is the risk that you lock into a high yielding fixed deposit or corporate deposit at the highest available rate (currently above 9.50%), and when your interest payments come in, there is no equivalent high interest rate investment avenue available for you to reinvest these interest proceeds (for example if your interest is paid out after 1 year and the prevailing interest rate is 8% at that time).

Currently as we are at an interest rate peak, it would be advisable to lock in for a longer tenor (provided your financial goal time horizon permits) to avoid facing reinvestment risk.

4. Interest Rate Risk

A golden rule in debt investing is this: Interest Rates go up, prices of bonds go down. And vice versa. So for example in our situation today, we appear to be at an interest rate peak. This means that since interest rates are going to go down from here, prices of bonds are going to go up. So if you were to invest in debt funds now, you would be buying at a low, and can sit back and watch as your investments start to give gains as interest rates fall.

5. Foreign Exchange Risk

Forex risk applies to any financial instruments that are denoted in a currency other than your own. For example, if a UK firm has invested in India, and the Indian investment does well in rupee terms, the UK firm might still lose money because the Rupee has depreciated against the Pound, so when the firm decides to pull out its investment on maturity, it gets fewer pounds on redemption.

With the recent very sharp fall in the rupee, the forex risk of our country as an investment destination has greatly increased.

6. Inflationary Risk

Inflationary risk, or simply, inflation risk, is when the real return on your investment is reduced due to inflation eroding the purchasing power of your funds by the time they mature.

For example, if you were to invest in a fixed deposit today and you were to earn a 10% interest on it in 1 year�s time, then if inflation has been 8% in that year, your real rate of return comes down to 2%, keeping purchasing power in mind.

7. Market Risk

This is the risk that the value of your investment will fall due to market risk factors, which include equity risk (risk of stock market prices or volatility changing), interest rate risk (risk of interest rate fluctuations), currency risk (risk of currency fluctuations) and commodity risk (risk of fluctuations in commodity prices).

There are other types of risk too, such as legislative risk, global risk, timing risk and more, but for the scope of this article, the ones explained above are the main ones you need to keep in mind, both on a macro (country) and a micro (individual investments) level.

Now that we have an understanding of the important types of risk, we should look at the better half � reward. Once we analyze the risk-reward tradeoff in the current scenario, we will come to the Golden Rule of Investing.

In Part II of this article, we will look at �risk-reward trade-off, also known as the Iron Stomach test, and the Golden Investing Rule.

Click here for Part II

(PersonalFN is a Mumbai-based personal finance website)
www.personalfn.com

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Silver Standard Posts 2Q Operational Data - Analyst Blog

Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI) has unveiled second-quarter 2013 operational update for its Pirquitas mine in Jujuy, Argentina.

The mine produced 1.9 million ounces of silver during the quarter, which was in line with what the company had expected for the quarter but declined 6.3% from the previous quarter. Lower tonnage through the mill and lower plant recoveries led to the sequential decline. Silver Standard sold 2.2 million ounces of silver at the Pirquitas mine in the second quarter. The company's production matched its guidance for the quarter and is expected to meet its guidance for the full year.

Pirquitas mine's production of 5.6 million pounds of zinc from zinc concentrate was the highest in any quarter in the mine's history. Production was up 68% from the previous quarter and was attributed to higher zinc grades and plant recoveries as the company mined more of the zinc-rich Potosi area of the San Miguel open pit.

Silver Standard milled 365,000 tons of ore at the mine, down 7.8% from the first quarter of 2013 due to a planned maintenance shutdown for ball mill reline. The company progressed San Miguel Phase 2 open pit transition which will position it to process higher grade material in the second half of 2013. The company also has restructuring plans in order to reduce costs and increase production recoveries.

Vancouver, Canada-based Silver Standard Resources has assets mainly in the Americas. The company owns and operates the Pirquitas mine which is one of the largest primary silver mines in the world.

Silver Standard, which is among the leading players in the silver mining industry along with Buenaventur (BVN), Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) and Hecla Mining (HL), currently retains a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The company is expected to release its second quarter results after the closing bell on Aug 7.


Saturday, August 17, 2013

Hot Insurance Stocks To Own Right Now

TransBiotec, Inc. (IMLE)

Today, IMLE remains (0.00%) +0.000 at $.0376 thus far (ref. google finance 3:54PM EDT July 23, 2013).

TransBiotec, Inc. previously reported it has entered into a non-binding letter of intent (LOI) with Eco Verde Solutions, LLC (ECO) to distribute TransBiotec, Inc.�� SOBR alcohol testing device in India.

The letter of intent is the result of negotiations between the parties and details the basic outline of the rights Eco Verde would have as TransBiotec�� exclusive distributor of the SOBR device in India if the parties are successful in consummating a definitive agreement. Under the letter of intent, TransBiotec proposed that Eco Verde would be TransBiotec�� exclusive distributor in the State of Andrha, India, for a period of fifteen months beginning on August 1, 2013, with Eco Verde concentrating on selling the SOBR device to insurance companies, trucking companies, busing companies, and to the railroad industry. Depending on Eco Verde�� success the parties are contemplating that Eco Verde could expand their exclusive distribution rights to all of India.

Hot Insurance Stocks To Own Right Now: Iamgold Corporation(IAG)

IAMGOLD Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral resource properties worldwide. It primarily explores for gold, silver, zinc, copper, niobium, diamonds, and other metals. The company holds interests in eight operating gold mines, a niobium producer, a diamond royalty, and exploration and development projects located in Africa and the Americas. Its advanced exploration and development projects include the Westwood project in Canada; and the Quimsacocha project, which consists of 3 mining concessions covering an aggregate area of approximately 8,030 hectares in Ecuador. The company was formerly known as IAMGOLD International African Mining Gold Corporation and changed its name to IAMGOLD Corporation in June 1997. IAMGOLD Corporation was founded in 1990 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Christopher Barker]

    Although I have not shed my long-standing contention that Yamana Gold offers one of the more deeply discounted vehicles for long-term gold exposure, lately my outlook for IAMGOLD has turned particularly bullish. With a looming spin-off of a 10% to 20% stake in the company's reliably profitable Niobec niobium mine, and the recent sale of its interest in a pair of high-cost gold operations in Ghana for $667 million, IAMGOLD finds itself in terrific financial shape to execute an aggressive $1.2 billion expansion imitative at existing operations.

    Considering the $1.6 billion net asset value (after tax) that IAMGOLD recently assessed for the Niobec mine alone, and a presumed hoard of more than $1.2 billion (in cash, cash equivalents, and gold bullion held for investment), at a market capitalization of $6.9 billion I find extreme comfort in the market's resulting valuation for IAMGOLD's 15.2 million ounces of attributable gold reserves.

Hot Insurance Stocks To Own Right Now: ING Groep NV (ING)

ING Groep N.V. (ING), incorporated in 1991, is a global financial institution offering banking, investments, life insurance and retirement services to meet the needs of the customers. The Company�� segments include banking and insurance. Banking segment includes retail Netherlands, retail Belgium, ING direct, retail central Europe (CE), retail Asia, commercial banking (excluding real estate), ING real estate and corporate line banking. Insurance segment includes insurance Benelux, insurance central and rest of Europe (CRE), insurance United States (US), Insurance US closed block VA, insurance Asia/Pacific, ING investment management (IM) and corporate line insurance. In February 2011, the Company divested its real estate investment operation ING Real Estate Investment Management (ING REIM) to CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. In June 2011, the Company sold Clarion Partners. In July 2011, ING announced the completion of the sale of Clarion Real Estate Securities. During the year ended December 31, 2011, the Company divested its interests in ING Car Lease and ING IM Philippines. In February 2012, Capital One Financial Corp. acquired ING Direct business in the United States from the Company.

In June 2011, ING had completed the sale of its interest in China�� Pacific Antai Life Insurance Company Ltd. In June 2011, ING announced the completion of the sale of real estate investment manager of its United States operations, Clarion Partners, to Clarion Partners management in partnership with Lightyear Capital LLC. In October 2011, ING announced that it had completed the sale of REIM�� Asian and European operations to CBRE Group Inc. In December 2011 ING completed the sale of its Latin American pensions, life insurance and investment management operations.

Retail Netherlands

Retail Banking reaches its individual customers through Internet banking, telephone, call centers, mailings and branches. Using direct marketing methods, it is a provider of current account services an! d payments systems to provide other financial services, such as savings accounts, mortgage loans, consumer loans, credit card services, investment and insurance products. Mortgages are offered through a tied agents sale force and direct and intermediary channels. ING Bank Netherlands operates through a branch network of approximately 280 branches. It offers a range of commercial banking activities and also life and non-life insurance products. It also sells mortgages through the intermediary channel.

Retail Belgium

ING Belgium provides banking, insurance (life, non-life) and asset management products and services to meet the needs of individuals, families, companies and institutions through a network of local head offices, 773 branches and direct banking channels (automated branches, home banking services and call centers). ING Belgium also operates a second network, Record Bank, which provides a range of banking products through independent banking agents and credit products through a multitude of channels (agents, brokers, vendors).

ING Direct

ING Direct offers a range of financial products, such as savings, mortgages, retail investment products, payment accounts and consumer lending products. It operates in Canada, Spain, Australia, France, Italy, Germany, Austria and the United Kingdom. In June 2011, ING Group announced the sale of ING Direct USA to Capital One Financial Corporation.

Retail Central Europe

Retail Central Europe has a presence in Poland, and Romania and Turkey. ING in Poland is an Internet bank. During 2011, ING Bank Turkey launched the Orange account, the variable savings product. ING in Turkey also launched a mobile phone banking application. ING Bank Romania carried out its Internet banking site, Home��ank. In September 2011, a mobile version of the Home��ank Website was introduced.

Retail Asia

Retail Banking has a presence in Asian markets of India, China and Thailand. As o! f Decembe! r 31, 2011, the Company had 44% interest in ING Vysya and 30% interest in TMB Bank in Thailand. Bank of Beijing (BoB), in which ING has the largest single interest (16.07%) is a commercial bank in China. ING provides principally risk management and retail banking to BoB.

Commercial Banking

ING Commercial Banking supports the banking needs of its corporate and institutional clients to invest both retail and commercial bank customer deposits. It is a commercial bank in its home markets in the Benelux, as well as in Germany, Central and Eastern Europe. In addition to the banking services of lending, payments and cash management and treasury, it also provides solutions in other areas, including specialized and trade finance, derivatives, corporate finance, debt and equity capital markets, leasing, factoring and supply chain finance. Payments and Cash Management (PCM) and General Lending are its some of the product lines. Structured Finance (SF) is a specialist commercial lending business, providing loans to support capital intensive investments and working capital. It is managed in three groups: the Energy, Transport and Infrastructure Group; the Specialized Financing Group; and International Trade and Export Finance. Leasing and Factoring (L&F) provides financial and operating leasing services for a range of equipment, as well as receivables financing and other factoring solutions for commercial banking clients. The Financial Markets (FM) is the global business unit that manages ING�� financial markets trading and non-trading activities. FM is managed along three business lines: ALCO manages the interest rates exposures arising from the traditional banking activities, Strategic Trading Platform incorporates the primary proprietary risk taking units, and Clients and Products is the primary customer trading facilitation business line.

Real Estate

During 2011, Real Estate Finance (REF) maintained its credit portfolio. Real Estate Development (ING RED) and! Real Est! ate Investment Management (ING REIM) has a controlled wind down of activities.

Insurance Benelux

Duirng 2011, Nationale-Nederlanden introduced bank pension savings products and annuities. ING Life Belgium introduced a new Universal Life product. Nationale-Nederlanden also received a license from the Dutch Central Bank to launch a defined contribution DC company pension product PPI in Europe. NN Services introduced a processing and information technology system (business process management layer) for several legacy lines of retail Life businesses. NN Services IT manages all the closed book business of Nationale-Nederlanden. ING�� life insurance products in the Benelux consist of a range of traditional, unit-linked and variable annuity policies written for both individual and group customers. ING is also a provider of (re-insured) company pension plans in the Netherlands.

NG Benelux��non-life products, mainly in the Netherlands, include coverage for both individual and commercial/group clients for fire, motor, disability, transport and third party liability. Nationale-Nederlanden has also a central product manufacturing service for property and casualty insurance, which has developed products for ING Bank in Belgium and ING Bank in the Netherlands. ING offers a range of disability insurance products and complementary services for employers and self-employed professionals (such as dentists and general practitioners).

Insurance Central and Rest of Europe

Insurance Central and Rest of Europe has life insurance companies in Hungary, Poland, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Spain and Turkey. It has pension funds in Poland, Hungary, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Bulgaria, Romania and in Turkey. ING offers a range of individual endowment, unit linked, term and whole life insurance policies designed to meet specific customer needs. It also has employee benefits products, as well as pension funds, that manage individu! al retire! ment accounts for individuals. The latter comprise both mandatory and voluntary retirement savings.

Insurance United States (Excluding US Closed Block Va)

ING Insurance US offers retirement services (primarily defined contribution plans), life insurance, fixed annuities, employee benefits, mutual funds, and broker-dealer services in the United States. ING Insurance US operates four businesses: Retirement Plans, Individual Retirement, Individual Life and Employee Benefits. ING Insurance US�� Retirement Plans business is a contribution providers, which offers a range of retirement solutions to all sizes and types of employers, including businesses for-profit ranging from start-ups to large corporations, public and private school systems, higher education institutions, state and local governments, hospitals and healthcare facilities, and not-for-profit organizations. ING Insurance US�� Retirement Plans business is a provider of defined contribution (DC) retirement plans in the United States based on assets under management and administration.

Insurance US Closed Block Va

ING US Closed Block VA consists of variable annuities issued in the United States that are primarily owned by individuals and were designed to address the demand for tax-advantaged savings, retirement planning, and wealth-protection. These annuity contracts were sold in the United States, primarily through independent third party distributors, including wirehouses and securities firms, independent planners and agents and banks.

Insurance Asia/Pacific

ING Insurance Asia/Pacific (IAP) is a provider of life insurance products and services. It is a life insurer in the region, with nine life operations in eight markets. IAP has ip operations in Japan and South Korea, operates a nt business in Malaysia, and is well in China, Hong Kong, Macau, India and Thailand. In April 2011, IAP, together with Public Bank Berhad and Public Islamic Bank Berhad, launched a joint ! venture i! n Malaysia, ING PUBLIC Takaful Ehsan Berhad, which will develop Takaful insurance products. In June 2011, IAP completed the sale of its 50% interest in Pacific-Antai Life Insurance Company Limited (PALIC).

The business units of IAP offer select types of life insurance, wealth management, and retail products and services. These include annuities, endowment, disability/morbidity insurance, unit linked/universal life, whole e, participating life, group life, accident and health, term life and employee benefits. In Hong Kong non-life insurance products (including medical, motor, fire, marine, personal accident and general liability) are also offered.

Insurance Latin America

ING completed the sale of its pensions, life insurance and investment management operations on December 29, 2011. These operations were in Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay.

ING Investment Management

ING IM is an investment manager of ING Group with activities in Europe, the Americas, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. In October 2011, ING IM sold ING IM Australia. ING IM provides a range of actively-managed strategies, investment vehicles and advisory services in all major asset classes and investment styles. It delivers a range of investment strategies and services to ING�� global network of businesses and third-party clients.

Top 5 Medical Companies To Own For 2014: Unum Group(UNM)

Unum Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides group and individual disability insurance products primarily in the United States and the United Kingdom. It also provides a portfolio of other insurance products, including employer-and employee-paid group benefits, life insurance, long-term care insurance, and related services. Its products include group long-term and short-term disability; group life and accidental death, and dismemberment; individual disability; group long-term care; voluntary benefits; group life; accident, sickness, and disability; and cancer and critical illness insurance products. The company also provides individual life and corporate-owned life insurance, reinsurance pools and management operations, group pension, health insurance, and individual annuities. Unum Group markets its products primarily to employers interested in providing benefits to their employees. The company sells its products through field sales personnel, independent brokers, consultants, and agency sales force. Unum Group was founded in 1848 and is based in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

Hot Insurance Stocks To Own Right Now: Sun Life Financial Inc.(SLF)

Sun Life Financial Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various life and health insurance, savings, investment management, retirement, and pension products and services to individuals and corporate customers. It offers individual life insurance policies, including individual term life, universal life, critical illness, disability, accident, and accidental death and dismemberment insurance policies; and group life insurance policies. The company also provides individual health insurance, long-term care insurance, group health benefits, dental benefits, and group insurance; and various individual and group annuity, retirement, and investment income products and services, such as mutual and pooled funds, variable and fixed annuities, savings, retirement and pension plans, and education savings. In addition, it offers asset management services for corporate retirement plans, separate accounts, public or government funds, and insurance company assets to institutional clients; and advisory services to individual investors. Further, the company provides run-off reinsurance services. Sun Life Financial Inc. distributes its products through direct sales agents, independent and managing general agents, financial intermediaries, broker-dealers, banks, pension and benefit consultants, and other third-party marketing organizations. The company operates primarily in Bermuda, Canada, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, the Philippines, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Sun Life Financial Inc. was founded in 1999 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Hot Insurance Stocks To Own Right Now: AmTrust Financial Services Inc (AFSI.O)

Amtrust Financial Services, Inc., incorporated on November 7, 1990, is a holding company. The Company is a multinational specialty property and casualty insurer focused on generating consistent underwriting profits. The Company operates in four business segments: small commercial business, specialty program and personal lines reinsurance. The Company transacts business through 11 insurance company subsidiaries: Technology Insurance Company, Inc. (TIC), Rochdale Insurance Company (RIC), Wesco Insurance Company (WIC), Associated Industries Insurance Company, Inc. (AIIC), Milwaukee Casualty Insurance Company (MCIC), Security National Insurance Company (SNIC), AmTrust Insurance Company of Kansas, Inc. (AICK) and AmTrust Lloyd�� Insurance Company of Texas (ALIC). In January 2013, the Company acquired First Nonprofit Companies, Inc. In February 2013, the Company's subsidiary acquired Car Care Plan (Holdings) Limited (CCPH) from Ally Insurance Holdings, Inc.

Sma ll Commercial Business

Small Commercial Business segment provides workers��compensation to small businesses that operate in low and medium hazard classes, such as restaurants, retail stores, physicians and other professional offices, and commercial package and other property and casualty insurance products to small businesses. The Company is authorized to write its Small Commercial Business products in all 50 states. The Company distributes its policies through a network of over 8,100 select retail and wholesale agents who are paid commissions based on the annual policy premiums written. Commercial package products provide a range of insurance to small businesses, including commercial property, general liability, inland marine, automobile, workers��compensation, and umbrella coverage.

The Company maintains Small Commercial Business property and casualty claims operations in several of its domestic offices and the commercial package claims opera tion is separated into four processing units: casualty, pr! op! erty, cost-containment/recovery and a fast-track physical damage unit. As of December 31, 2012, its Small Commercial Business property and casualty claims were approximately 61% automobile and 13% property and inland marine with the remaining 26% involving general liability and umbrella losses.

Specialty Risk and Extended Warranty

The Company��Specialty Risk and Extended Warranty segment provides coverage for consumer and commercial goods and custom designed coverages, such as accidental damage plans and payment protection plans offered in connection with the sale of consumer and commercial goods in the United States and Europe, and certain niche property, casualty and specialty liability risks in the United States and Europe, including general liability, employers��liability and professional and medical liability. specialty risk business primarily covers, such as legal expenses in the event of unsuccessful litigation; property damage for resid ential properties; home emergency repairs caused by incidents affecting systems, such as plumbing, wiring or central heating; latent defects that materialize on real property after building or completion; payment protection to insureds if they become unable to meet financial obligations under finance contracts; guaranteed asset protection (GAP) to cover the difference between an insurer�� settlement and the asset value in the event of a total loss, and general liability, employers��liability, public liability, negligence of advisors and liability of health care providers and medical facilities.

The Company's extended warranty business covers selected consumer and commercial goods and other risks, including personal computers; consumer electronics, such as televisions and home theater components; consumer appliances, such as refrigerators and washing machines; automobiles (excluding liability coverage); furniture, and heavy equipment. The Company also serve a s a third party administrator to provide claims handli! ng and! c! all cen! ter services to the consumer products and automotive industries in the United States and Canada. It underwrites the specialty risk coverage on a coverage plan-level basis, which involves substantial data collection and actuarial analysis, as well as analysis of applicable laws governing policy coverage language and exclusions.

Specialty Program

The Company�� Specialty Program segment provides workers��compensation, package products, general liability, commercial auto liability, excess and surplus lines programs and other specialty commercial property and casualty insurance to a narrowly defined, homogeneous group of small and middle market companies. The type of risk covered by this segment is similar to the type of risk in Small Commercial Business but also covers, to a small extent, certain higher risk businesses. The coverage is offered through accounts with various agents to multiple insureds. Policyholders in this segment primarily include industries, such as retail, wholesale, service operations, artisan contracting, trucking, light and medium manufacturing, habitational and professional employer organizations. As of December 31, 2012, the Company underwrote 77 programs through 44 independent wholesale and managing general agents. Workers��compensation insurance consists approximately 33% of this business during the year ended December 31, 2012.

Personal Lines Reinsurance

The Company�� Personal Lines Reinsurance Segment has a 20% participation in the Personal Lines Quota Share, by which it receive 10% of the net premiums of the personal lines business. The Personal Lines Quota Share provides that the reinsurers, severally, in accordance with their participation percentages, will receive 50% of the net premium of the GMACI Insurers and assume 50% of the related net losses.

Hot Insurance Stocks To Own Right Now: Aon Corporation(AON)

Aon Corporation provides risk management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, and human resource consulting and outsourcing services primarily in the United States, the Americas, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company?s Risk Solutions segment offers retail brokerage products and services, including affinity products, general underwriting management services, placement services, and captive management services; and advisory services to technology, financial services, agribusiness, aviation, construction, health care, and energy industries, as well as facilitates various risk management solutions for property liability, general liability, professional liability, directors' and officers' liability, workers' compensation, and various healthcare products. This segment also provides risk consulting services comprising captive management; eSolutions products that enable clients to manage risks, policies, claims, and safet y concerns through an integrated technology platform; reinsurance brokerage services, such as actuarial, enterprise risk management, catastrophe management, and rating agency advisory services; property and casualty reinsurance; and specialty lines, which include professional liability, medical malpractice, accident, life, and health, as well as capital management transaction and advisory services. Its HR Solutions segment offers human capital services in the areas of health and benefits, retirement, compensation, and strategic human capital; and benefits administration and human resource business process outsourcing services. The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Michael]

    Aon Corp. (NYSE: AON : 46.02, 0.87) registered net profit of $258 million or 75 cents per share in its Q2, up from $153 million, or 54 cents per share a year earlier. Analysts had forecasted earnings of 82 cents per share for the company. Total revenue during the quarter rose 48 percent to $2.8 billion. Shares had closed yesterday's trading at $49.39.

Friday, August 16, 2013

Viacom to Raise Stake in MTV Italia - Analyst Blog

10 Best Safest Stocks To Own For 2014

Through a recently inked agreement, Viacom Inc. (VIAB) will gain full control over Telecom Italia Media owned MTV Italia -- a division of Telecom Italia S.p.A. (TI). The company will buy a 51% stake in the music channel for a total consideration of €10 million ($12.825 million).

The deal is expected to close by the end of Sep 2013, subject to regulatory approval. In addition, Viacom has not only renewed its multi-year broadcasting agreement with the media company but was also waived off from Telecom Italia Media's €9.7 million ($12.44 million) loans to MTV Italia.

Despite telecasting original hits like Very Victoria, Italo-Francese, Avere Ventanni and Hitlist Italia along with the Italian version of Total Request Live, LoveLine and Brand New, MTV Italia's revenues dropped 25% to $70.5 million in 2012 as compared to $94 million in 2011. The continuous fall in the advertisement business coupled with a highly volatile European economy have resulted in such a drop in MTV's business.

A few days back, Telecom Italia Media also divested its loss making network, La7 TV. Hence, we believe that selling its stake to Viacom is part of its strategy to divest the unprofitable assets. This will not only bolster profitability but will also help the company manage its debt position.

Following the acquisition, Viacom will become a dominant force in the Italian media industry by having complete control over seven popular networks (MTV channels, Nickelodeon, Nick Jr. and Comedy Central) in the country.

Moreover, the company is strengthening its international core channels like MTV and Nickelodeon by investing heavily on original series and launching Nick app for Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) iPhone users and Google Inc.'s (GOOG) Android users. Such a move will drive ad revenue; consequently will also help the fans to get closely associated with the ! brand.

Currently, Viacom has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Top 5 Undervalued Companies To Buy For 2014

Warren Buffett, arguably the best investor of all time, has his foibles. One such he admitted recently in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)�� investor letter ��his ill-fated decision to buy $2 billion in several bond issues of Energy Future Holdings, which he called �� mistake ��a big mistake.��This mistake is part of his broader history of mixed results with energy investments.

Energy Future Holdings, formerly TXU Energy, is based in Dallas, Texas, and is the largest energy generator in the state. It came into being when Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR) and Texas Pacific Group (TPG) bought TXU out for $45 billion, the largest leveraged buyout in history, and took it private. Shareholders received $69.25 per share, a 25 percent premium. GS Capital Partners, Lehman Brothers, Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley were equity investors in the deal. Buffett bought $2 billion worth of bonds.

The investment met many of Buffett�� criteria for stock picking and business buying. At the time, the company served 2.1 million customers, it was simple and understandable, it had been producing the same product since 1882 and it produced a product that people could not live without. It was also profitable, with operating revenues that had increased substantially ��from $106 million to $151 million ��from 2004 to 2006.

However, TXU did not have a particularly wide competitive advantage in the deregulated Texas energy market. It also produced nuclear, coal and natural gas power, and ultimately, Buffett said, it was the plummeting of volatile natural gas prices that derailed the investment.

TXU explained how energy prices correlate to gas prices in its 2006 10-K: ��as-fueled generation is the predominant supply resource in the ERCOT [Electric Reliability Council of Texas] region in terms of both the installed capacity and electricity generation, accounting for approximately 75% of the capacity and 50% of the energy produced in the ERCOT region. As a result, natural gas-fueled pl! ant operators are the marginal suppliers in ERCOT, and wholesale electricity prices are highly correlated to natural gas prices.

By mid- 2006, electricity prices had risen more than 35 percent, largely as a result of skyrocketing natural gas prices. But by late 2010, the price of natural gas plunged, making it difficult for Energy Future Holdings to meet its debt payments. Moody�� Investor Service described the company at that time as having a ��ery weak financial profile, untenable capital structure, questionable long-term business plan and material operating headwinds.��br>
Buffett�� stepping out of his usual bounds cost him greatly. He wrote down the investment by $1 billion in 2010, and an additional $390 million in 2011. He carries the bonds now at their market value of $878 million, and could lose the entire investment if natural gas prices do not increase.

Buffett made another energy investing mistake with ConocoPhillips (COP), which actually resulted in a greater loss than Energy Future Holdings ��an estimated more than $3 billion.

Buffett began buying COP stock in 2005 at near $60. Then, in 2008, he poured an additional $5 billion into the position, when the stock reached its all-time high in the $90s. Shortly after that purchase, the price of oil plunged, cutting the price of COP shares approximately in half.



The 2009 Berkshire investor letter also records Buffett�� admission: �� told you in an earlier part of this report that last year I made a major mistake of commission (and maybe more; this one sticks out). Without urging from Charlie or anyone else, I bought a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak. I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year. I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible ti! ming of m! y purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars.��

The price has never again reached the level of his 2008 purchases, but he has been selling as it has recovered. It has reached a 52-week high of $81.80.

His investment in PetroChina (PTR) was more successful than either of his two losses in Energy Future Holdings or ConocoPhillips, though he said he still thought he sold too soon.

Berkshire bought 1.3 percent of PetroChina for $488 million, which valued the company at about $37 billion, when he believed it was worth about $100 billion. In 2002, the stock sold near $20. Two factors, Buffett said in his 2007 investor letter, increased its value, the increased price of oil, and its management�� great job in building oil and gas reserves. Oil prices also played in his favor this time. It had gone up from $30 to $75 per barrel.

He sold the stock from $160 to $200 per share. This gave him a profit of about $3.5 billion on a $500 million investment. But unfortunately, the stock still had farther to go. By 2007 it had rocked to a high near $255.

On his PetroChina investment, Buffett emphasized that price was the primary factor that got him interested. �� sit there in my office and I read an annual report and it described a very good company. It told about the oil reserves, told about the refining, told about the chemicals, told about everything else, and I sat there and thought to myself, ��his company�� worth about $100 billion.��Now I didn�� look at the price first, I look at the business first. Because if I look at the price first I get influenced by that, so I look at the company first, I try to value it, and then I look at the price and if the price is way less than what I just valued it at, I�� going to buy it,��he said on a television interview after he sold his stake.

Though there were many different factors involved in these investments, price played an important role in whether they were successful or not, showing how important not! overpayi! ng is even for Warren Buffett.

See Warren Buffett�� portfolio here and also check out the Undervalued Stocks, Top Growth Companies, and High Yield stocks of Warren Buffett.

Top 5 Undervalued Companies To Buy For 2014: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rebecca Lipman]

     Together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. Market cap of $91.49B. EPS growth (5-year CAGR) at 24%. According to Morgan Stanley: "Thanks to an estimated $1 billion investment per year in R&D, Schlumberger has what we consider the most advanced technology portfolio in the industry."

  • [By Kathy Kristof]

    Headquarters: Houston

    52-Week High: $79.38

    52-Week Low: $56.86 

    Annual Sales: $39.5 bill.

    Projected Earnings Growth: 18% annually over the next five years 


    Energy-services giant Schlumberger is the prototypical multinational. The company derives roughly 85% of its revenues from overseas, including developing markets in Africa, Brazil and Asia. 

    With particular expertise in deep-water drilling, Schlumberger is well-positioned to compete in a world where oil is harder to find, says Argus Research analyst Philip Weiss. Admittedly, oil exploration is a cyclical business, driven largely by crude prices. And weak prices for natural gas have hit the company’s stock, Weiss says. But the price of natural gas has little to do with Schlumberger’s profits, so Weiss just sees this as an opportunity to get the shares at a more reasonable price.

  • [By Robert Holmes]

     Schlumberger has the most potential upside of any stock in this group of 50 that also makes the firm's Best Ideas list. Analyst Ole Slorer says Schlumberger has "what we consider the most advanced technology portfolio in the industry."

    "Its fundamentals are impressive, with what we think are some of the best field personnel, a pristine service and performance reputation, and leading market share in most of its product lines," Slorer writes.

    Though Slorer's price target is 42% above current levels, his most bullish scenario for Schlumberger over the next year would see shares climb a whopping 116%. On the downside, his most bearish scenario for the company would see shares slide 38% over the next 12 months.

Top 5 Undervalued Companies To Buy For 2014: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sam Collins]

    Household name Tupperware Brands Corp. (NYSE:TUP) is a global direct seller of products with multiple brands through an independent sales force of 2.4 million people. Its product line focuses on kitchen storage and serving solutions, as well as personal-care products. Over 60% of sales in 2011 are expected to come from Europe and Asia, and the stock has appeal as an emerging markets story.

    S&P estimates that 2011 earnings will increase to $4.54 versus $3.53 in 2010, and it increased its rating to a “five-star strong buy” with a recently revised 12-month target of $81, up from $73. The 2005 purchase of Sara Lee’s (NYSE:SLE) direct-sales business, which has a high growth rate, should be a long-term benefit. TUP’s annual dividend yield is 1.92%.

    Technically TUP had a pullback following a new high at over $70 and is currently oversold. Buy TUP at the current market price with a trading target of $70, but longer term a much higher target will likely be attained.

5 Best Insurance Stocks To Watch Right Now: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sam Collins]

    Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) is a leading operator of discount variety stores. The stock has hugged its 50-day moving average since mid-February. But a recent minor revision of earnings for this year by several analysts and the recent market sell-off have resulted in a fall from its high of the year at over $70 to under $66. However, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) increased its price target to $73 from $69.

    Technically DLTR is oversold, according to MACD. A break below its 50-day moving average could result in a pullback to $64, but positions could be taken at the current market price. The trading target for DLTR is $72.

Top 5 Undervalued Companies To Buy For 2014: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    For one day at least, this CAT is not a dog.

    Caterpillar (CAT) has gained 2% to $86.22 today, its largest gain since in a month and the largest gain among the Dow components. The machinery manufacturer has dropped 11% during the past six months, however, as a slowdown in China and cost-cutting at mining companies have hit its shares.

    Bloomberg

    Susquehanna’s Ted Grace offers reasons for optimism, even as he lowers his 12-month price target to $97 from $104:

    CAT remains Positive rated with 15% upside to our $97 price target and upside-downside of 1.2-to-1 (which, like most of our machinery names, is admittedly shy of the 2-to-1 or better ratio we prefer). Despite our 2014-15 EPS being ~6% below consensus, we view our updated estimates as closer to buyside expectations while noting that consensus appears to embed a low tax rate that explains over half of the variance. While there remains plenty of uncertainty on 2014/15, particularly in mining, we believe CAT shares currently discount reasonable top-line expectations while recent meetings with mgmt suggest potential for structural cost savings that could drive better than expected margins/ incrementals. While difficult to identify discernible catalysts, if CAT’s framework for flat-to-better RI revenue growth in 2014 proves correct (admittedly not assumed in our estimates), this would almost certainly debunk the core of the bear thesis and be meaningfully positive for shares.

    Investors waiting for the stock to actually, you know, rise can take comfort in Caterpillar’s $2.40 dividend per share and its more than $3 per share in buybacks in 2013, Grace says.

    Caterpillar’s 2% gain has trumped the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 0.04% rise, and United Technology’s (UTX) 0.1% drop, while competitor Deere (DE) has gained 1.9% to $83.22.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Best Gold Stocks To Buy Right Now

Costco (NASDAQ: COST  ) was one of the first stocks I purchased for the Prosocial Portfolio I'm managing for Fool.com. It's one of my very favorites -- a company that sets high standards in an industry that generally keeps their standards pretty low. However, I have failed to add to my position.

That's about to change. Finally, I'm purchasing a little more of this gold-standard stock for the portfolio now, two years after the initial buy, and it's long overdue.

An increasing competitive advantage
Costco's been a real winner since I purchased it for the portfolio in December 2010, and before. The company has been a success both in terms of operations and stock price, even weathering the worst of the recessionary environment.

When I bought shares of Costco for the Prosocial Portfolio, which seeks to include positive environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in its design, I may have lost a few people. I got the impression that some people couldn't fathom how Costco could possibly be considered a socially responsible company.

Best Gold Stocks To Buy Right Now: Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc.(CRTX)

Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the acquisition, development, and commercialization of prescription pharmaceutical drugs for the hospital, niche respiratory, and related specialty markets. The company offers CUROSURF, a natural lung surfactant used for the treatment of respiratory distress syndrome in premature infants; and ZYFLO CR and ZYFLO, which are leukotriene synthesis inhibitor drugs used for the prevention and chronic treatment of asthma in adults and children. It also provides anti-infective products, such as FACTIVE, a fluoroquinolone antibiotic used for the treatment of acute bacterial exacerbation of chronic bronchitis (ABECB) and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) of mild to moderate severity; and SPECTRACEF, a antibiotic used for the treatment of respiratory tract infections, pharyngitis and tonsillitis, uncomplicated skin and skin-structure infections, ABECB, and CAP. In addition, the company?s pipeline products include CRTX 080, a vasopressin receptor 2 antagonist lixivaptan used for the treatment of hyponatremia; CRTX 073, an anti-asthma product candidate used for the treatment of asthma; and CRTX 067, a cough/cold product candidate for the treatment of cough and cold. It serves drug wholesalers, retail drug stores, mass merchandisers, and grocery store pharmacies in the United States. The company was formerly known as Critical Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc. as a result of its merger with Cornerstone BioPharma Holdings, Inc. in October 2008. Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Cary, North Carolina.

Best Gold Stocks To Buy Right Now: Cenveo Inc (CVO)

Cenveo, Inc. is a diversified printing company in North America. The Company�� portfolio of products includes commercial printing, envelope production, labels manufacturing, packaging and publisher offerings. It operates a global network of printing and manufacturing, fulfillment and distribution facilities, which it refers to as manufacturing facilities, serving a diverse base of over 100,000 customers. The Company operates in two segments: envelopes and labels and commercial printing. In August 1, 2011, it completed the acquisition of Nesbitt Graphics, Inc. (Nesbitt). In February 1, 2011, it acquired the assets of MeadWestvaco Corporation's Envelope Product Group (EPG).

Envelopes and Labels

The Company�� envelopes and labels segment operates 31 manufacturing facilities in North America. During the year ended December 31, 2011, its envelopes and labels segment represented approximately 55% of its net sales. It specializes in the design, manufacturing and printing of direct mail and customized envelopes developed for advertising, billing and remittance; custom labels, and stock envelopes and labels. Its envelopes and labels segment serves customers ranging from fortune 50 companies to middle market and small companies serving niche markets. It offers direct mail products used for customer solicitations and custom envelopes used for billing and remittance by end users, including banks, brokerage firms and insurance and credit card companies.

The Company prints a diverse line of custom labels for a range of industries, including manufacturing, warehousing, packaging, food and beverage, and health and beauty, which it sells through networks within the resale channels. It also produces pressure-sensitive prescription labels for the retail pharmacy chain market. It also provides direct mail and overnight packaging labels, food and beverage labels, and shelf and scale labels for national and regional customer accounts. It produces a line of stock envelopes and la! bels that are sold through independent distributors, contract stationers, national catalogs for the office products market, office products superstores and quick printers.

Commercial Printing

The Company�� commercial printing segment operates 36 manufacturing facilities in the United States, Canada, Latin America and Asia. During 2011, its commercial printing segment represented approximately 45% of its net sales. It provides print, design, content management, fulfillment and distribution offerings, including high-end color printing of a range of premium products for major national and regional customers; general commercial printing products for regional and local customers; STM journals, special interest and trade magazines for not-for-profit organizations, educational institutions and specialty publishers, and specialty packaging and promotional materials for multinational consumer products companies.

The Company�� commercial printing segment primarily caters to the consumer products, pharmaceutical, financial services, publishing, and telecommunications industries, with customers ranging from fortune 50 companies to middle market and small companies operating in niche markets. It provides an array of commercial print offerings to its customers, including electronic prepress, digital asset archiving, direct-to-plate technology, color printing on Web and sheet-fed presses and digital printing. The selection of commercial printing products it produces also includes specialty packaging, full body shrink sleeves, journals and specialized periodicals, annual reports, car brochures, direct mail products, advertising literature, corporate identity materials and brand marketing materials. In its journal and specialty magazine business, it offers solutions, including editing, content processing, content management, electronic peer review, production, distribution and reprint marketing. Its primary customers for the specialty packaging and promotional products are pha! rmaceutic! al, apparel, tobacco, neutraceutical and other multi-national consumer product companies.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By James K. Glassman]

    Cenveo (symbol: CVO) is a printing company with a $2 share price and a price-earnings ratio, based on estimated 2013 earnings, of just 4. It's the choice of Daniel Abramowitz, with Hillson Financial Management in Rockville, Md. Cenveo has a lot of debt, and the stock is speculative, he notes: "But the downside at these levels is limited, and the upside is pretty substantial."

Best Canadian Companies To Invest In Right Now: Palomar Medical Technologies Inc.(PMTI)

Palomar Medical Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells lasers and other light-based products, and related disposable items and accessories for use in dermatology and cosmetic procedures. It provides a range of products based on proprietary technologies that address various cosmetic issues, including hair removal; body sculpting comprising laser-assisted liposuction; removal of vascular lesions, such as rosacea, spider veins, port wine stains, and hemangiomas; wrinkle reduction; removal of leg veins; removal of benign pigmented lesions, including age and sun spots, freckles, and melasma; tattoo removal; acne treatment; skin resurfacing; treatment of red pigmentation in hypertrophic and keloid scars; treatment of verrucae, skin tags, and seborrheic keratosis; skin tightening through soft tissue coagulation; scars comprising acne scars, stretch marks, and warts; and soft tissue coagulation. The company?s proprietary tech nology products include EsteLux pulsed light system, Palomar MediLux pulsed light system, StarLux 300 and StarLux 500 pulsed light and laser systems, Aspire body sculpting system and SlimLipo handpiece, Artisan Platform facial rejuvenation system, Palomar Icon aesthetic system, Acleara acne clearing system, Adivive fat transfer system, SkinTel melanin reader, Palomar Q-YAG 5 system, and Palo Via skin renewing laser. It offers its products through a network of distributors, cable television shopping, high end department stores, online retailers, physician?s offices, spas, and palovia.com in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia/Pacific Rim, South and Central America, Australia, and Japan. Palomar Medical Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Is Accelrys a Cash Machine?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Accelrys (Nasdaq: ACCL  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Accelrys generated $6.6 million cash while it booked a net loss of $13.9 million. That means it turned 4.0% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

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For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Accelrys look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 36.6% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Accelrys investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 60.6% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 54.3% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Software and computerized services are being consumed in radically different ways, on new and increasingly mobile devices. Many old leaders will be left behind. Whether or not Accelrys makes the coming cut, you should check out the company that Motley Fool analysts expect to lead the pack in "The Next Trillion-dollar Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Accelrys to My Watchlist.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Michael Kors Holdings Crushes Earnings Estimates

Michael Kors Holdings (NYSE: KORS  ) reported earnings on May 29. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 30 (Q4), Michael Kors Holdings beat expectations on revenues and crushed expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue expanded significantly. GAAP earnings per share grew significantly.

Margins increased across the board.

Revenue details
Michael Kors Holdings logged revenue of $597.2 million. The 14 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ wanted to see revenue of $548.7 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 57% higher than the prior-year quarter's $380.0 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.50. The 15 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated $0.39 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.50 for Q4 were 127% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.22 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 59.7%, 200 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 26.0%, 530 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 16.9%, 540 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

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Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $556.1 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.46.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $2.81 billion. The average EPS estimate is $2.49.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 236 members out of 272 rating the stock outperform, and 36 members rating it underperform. Among 62 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 52 give Michael Kors Holdings a green thumbs-up, and 10 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Michael Kors Holdings is outperform, with an average price target of $74.71.

Selling to fickle consumers is a tough business for Michael Kors Holdings or anyone else in the space. But some companies are better equipped to face the future than others. In a new report, we'll give you the rundown on three companies that are setting themselves up to dominate retail. Click here for instant access to this free report.

Add Michael Kors Holdings to My Watchlist.