Herbalife (HLF) has fallen this morning, even as Pershing Square’s William Ackman said he had decreased the amount of Herbalife shares he had sold short and replaced them with long-term put options that will also profit if the stock falls.
Bloomberg News The main benefit, according to the Wall Street Journal: a smaller short position makes the company less susceptible to a squeeze. Ackman still believes that Herbalife is destined to plummet. In his letter to investors–via the Journal–he wrote:
“We believe it is only a matter of time before the Company is shut down and prosecuted by regulators,” he wrote, later saying he had not seen “a less attractive risk-reward ratio than a long investment in Herbalife common stock at current levels”
D.A. Davidson’s Timothy Ramey notes that the new position seems “at odds” with Pershing Square’s goals. He writes:
If it truly still believes the go-to-zero thesis, and Mr. Ackman writes in his letter that he does, then it makes no sense to put a time element into this trade. He now needs to be both right on the go-to-zero thesis and right on the timing. On one thing we do agree – Pershing Square has significantly reduced the risk of unlimited losses, but has increased the certainty of a total loss of the original $1 billion short position as the puts expire worthless. The counterparty to his trades indeed has a winning hand.
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The market, however, clearly hasn’t taken it that way, as Herbalife’s shares have dropped 4% to $70.21. Direct seller Avon Products (AVP) has fallen 1.2% to $20.67, while nutritional-product retailer GNC Holdings (GNC) has declined 1.6% to $53.81.
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